Federated Investors' CIO of Global Money Markets Deborah Cunningham published her latest "Month in Cash" column, "Fed Doesn't Take Afternoon Tea." She writes, "Those obsessed with the possibility Britain will leave the European Union are realizing the Fed may not be.... We don't think Brexit matters to policymakers as much as the improving statistics, and a "leave" vote wouldn't be that big of an influence anyway because it will take years to implement all the changes that would entail." Cunningham continues, "In the meantime, we continue to see good returns for prime funds. The spread between prime and government funds is about 22 basis points across the industry versus a historic average of about 12-13 basis points. This performance has caused some cash managers to hold off moving investments from prime products to govies, and it might keep them from ever transferring a substantial portion of their cash. In addition, the London interbank offered rate is still ticking up, if slowly. Investors in prime funds are enjoying the yield spread for now. As to their feelings nearer to the Oct. 14 implementation of the new SEC money fund rules, no one knows for sure. But even as the industry endures many operational changes, much money spent and general stress, it might just be that cash managers keep calm and carry on." In other news, Fidelity Investments' Michael Morin and Kerry Pope also released new money market commentary, "With Easing Global Economic Pressures, U.S. Data Plays Bigger Role in Rate Policy." They write, "Calendar-based pressures around tax payments cause money market fund outflows. Money market fund flows are seasonal, and April tax payments from money market funds typically drive fund balances to their annual low point. Total money market assets fell during the month of April by $22 billion, or nearly -0.9%. Prime money market funds dropped by $42 billion, or over 3.0%, while government funds increased their balances by $20 billion -- a 1.5% increase. That said, ICI reported that total money market fund assets under management climbed by $117 billion, or 4.5% year to date, through April. This upward trend is expected to continue as market rates adjust higher and banks continue to rationalize their cost of deposits. A vast number of our corporate clients have yet to make any changes to their fund lineups. The expectation is that many corporate clients will assess money market fund alternatives during the second and third quarters."
