T. Rowe Price published, "Putting cash to work in 2024," which tells us, "A wall of money is hanging over U.S. financial markets -- in the form of a huge stockpile of liquidity parked in money market funds and other short term liquid accounts. Where those funds move next, and when, could be a decisive factor in the future performance of both stocks and bonds. Our bottom line conclusion is that cash seeking higher returns is likely to move into shorter term bonds, given attractive yield levels and a potential for price appreciation as yields move lower." T. Rowe continues, "Investor motives also could matter: Assets parked in money market funds to avoid the 2022–2023 stock and bond sell offs could return to risk assets, while cash shifted from bank savings accounts appears more likely to remain in money market funds as long as they maintain a yield advantage over savings accounts. Mutual funds are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. While money market funds typically seek to maintain a share price of USD 1.00, there is no guarantee they will do so." Shifting to the section, "Flows may lag rates," the piece states, "Although the past four Fed policy cycles suggest that investors could have benefited most by shifting from cash to longer term fixed income assets and stocks either before or at an interest rate peak, actual investor behavior suggests they often have been slow to move, even after Fed rate cuts started pushing money market yields lower.... [I]n each of the past three Fed cycles, money market fund assets didn't stop rising until well after the Fed had started cutting rates. In the past two cycles, these balances continued to grow even after short term rates had bottomed out." The section "Not all flows are alike," says, "Because record flows into retail and institutional money market funds were driven by a variety of factors, where and when they are likely to go next are complicated questions. Money market fund assets held in retail brokerage accounts seem more likely to move into equities, credit, and other risk assets. But many might be inclined to remain in those funds, as yields probably will still be attractive even at 3%–4% levels if inflation continues to slow and real (inflation adjusted) rates of return remain positive.... For institutional clients who fled banks to mitigate specific credit risks during the regional banking crisis in early 2023, money market funds were just one option. Many chose to invest directly in U.S. Treasury securities or limited their transfers to government money market funds. But with short term Treasury yields widely expected to move lower in 2024 as the Fed eases, money market funds could provide a yield advantage that attracts inflows from institutional investors focused on comparative returns among 'cash equivalent' investments. These varied sources of inflows across investor types suggest that at least part of today's massive stockpile of liquidity is not destined to move into risk assets, no matter how attractive they may appear to be."

Email This Article




Use a comma or a semicolon to separate

captcha image

Daily Link Archive

2024 2023 2022
November December December
October November November
September October October
August September September
July August August
June July July
May June June
April May May
March April April
February March March
January February February
January January
2021 2020 2019
December December December
November November November
October October October
September September September
August August August
July July July
June June June
May May May
April April April
March March March
February February February
January January January
2018 2017 2016
December December December
November November November
October October October
September September September
August August August
July July July
June June June
May May May
April April April
March March March
February February February
January January January
2015 2014 2013
December December December
November November November
October October October
September September September
August August August
July July July
June June June
May May May
April April April
March March March
February February February
January January January
2012 2011 2010
December December December
November November November
October October October
September September September
August August August
July July July
June June June
May May May
April April April
March March March
February February February
January January January
2009 2008 2007
December December December
November November November
October October October
September September September
August August August
July July July
June June June
May May May
April April April
March March March
February February February
January January January
2006
December
November
October
September