Fitch European MF 'What If' Scenarios
A press release entitled, "Fitch 'AAAmmf' Rated European MMFs Face 'What If' Scenarios for Eurozone" says, "Fitch Ratings has considered several scenarios for the eurozone to perform a 'what if' analysis on the resiliency and stability of 'AAAmmf'-rated money market funds (MMFs). Fitch considers three distinct scenarios in order to analyze potential implications for 'AAAmmmf'-rated MMFs. Fitch's base case remains that the eurozone will muddle through the sovereign debt crisis as a currency union and that no country will abandon the euro. SCENARIO 1: Eurozone Exit by one Peripheral Country. Based on this analysis, Fitch believes that 'AAAmmf'-rated European money market funds are resilient in the hypothetical scenario of orderly exit from the eurozone by a peripheral country. As a result, Fitch-rated MMFs may continue to be rated 'AAAmmf' under this scenario. 'AAAmmf' rated European MMF are not directly exposed to peripheral eurozone countries, i.e. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. As of May 2012, euro and sterling denominated funds have an average of 70% of assets invested in issuers from core European countries and 30% outside the eurozone.... A more disorderly scenario, involving material contagion to banks and core eurozone countries, could lead to a severe market stress, that may include a shutdown of interbank markets affecting the liquidity of MMFs, similar to that experienced in 2008. In this more stressful scenario in which the EU/ECB policy response fails to control the situation, a 'flight to quality' by depositors and investors in other peripheral countries could precipitate bank runs, capital flight and a loss of government market access. In this second, more severe scenario, Fitch believes redemption restrictions by some weaker MMFs, or those without well-resourced sponsors, is a possibility and could be implemented by fund sponsors or imposed by regulators to protect remaining investors and avoid forced selling."
