​ The Federal Reserve Board left the target for the Fed funds rate unchanged at 5.​25% yesterday. While markets interpreted this as raising the odds of a rate cut, we think it'​s clear from the statement that the Fed is still leaning towards a tightening. The statement says, "​Recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated.... In these circumstances, the Committee'​s predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information." Click here for a history of Fed actions.

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