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ICI recently released its latest monthly "Money Market Fund Holdings" summary, which reviews the aggregate daily and weekly liquid assets, regional exposure, and maturities (WAM and WAL) for Prime and Government money market funds. It tells us, "The Investment Company Institute (ICI) reports that, as of the final Friday in June, prime money market funds held 42.7 percent of their portfolios in daily liquid assets and 60.3 percent in weekly liquid assets, while government money market funds held 73.6 percent of their portfolios in daily liquid assets and 85.8 percent in weekly liquid assets." Prime DLA was down from 45.6% in May, and Prime WLA was down from 62.5%. Govt MMFs' DLA rose from 73.5% and Govt WLA was down from 85.9% for the previous month. ICI explains, "At the end of June, prime funds had a weighted average maturity (WAM) of 39 days and a weighted average life (WAL) of 59 days. Average WAMs and WALs are asset-weighted. Government money market funds had a WAM of 39 days and a WAL of 94 days." Prime WAMs and WALs were both down from the previous month, WAMs and WALs were both 2 days shorter. Govt WAMs and WALs were both down from the previous month, WAMs were 4 days shorter and WALs were 2 days shorter. Regarding Holdings by Region of Issuer, the release tells us, "Prime money market funds’ holdings attributable to the Americas rose from $767.99 billion in May to $774.10 billion in June. Government money market funds’ holdings attributable to the Americas rose from $5,967.89 billion in May to $6,034.19 billion in June." The Prime Money Market Funds by Region of Issuer table shows Americas-related holdings at $774.1 billion, or 63.1%; Asia and Pacific at $162.5 billion, or 13.2%; Europe at $275.3 billion, or 22.4%; and, Other (including Supranational) at $15.2 billion, or 1.3%. The Government Money Market Funds by Region of Issuer table shows Americas at $6.034 trillion, or 93.0%; Asia and Pacific at $127.5 or 2.0%; Europe at $305.1 billion, 4.7%, and Other (Including Supranational) at $20.3 billion, or 0.3%.

BlackRock (BLK) reported its Q2'26 earnings yesterday, but talked very little about cash and money markets. (See the call transcript here.) CFO Martin Small says, "Cash net outflows of $7 billion in the quarter were due to redemptions from U.S. government funds, partially offset by the creation of bespoke liquidity solutions. Our customization capabilities and scale are driving sustained growth in cash management, with AUM up 10% from a year ago. We see the road to 2030 and beyond as presenting one of the largest expansions in capital markets growth and participation in history. The forces of demographics, growing retirement needs, generational wealth transfer, structural deficits, rapid innovation cycles." During the Q&A, the company was asked about tokenization. Small replies, "We see the operating environment in digital assets becoming more and more constructive; our strategy remains client led. We already have about $110 billion in AUM connected to digital assets. As part of our 2030 plan, we're aiming to make this a $500 million revenue business at BlackRock.... We have three things we're doing and tracking milestones against each. The first is to bridge traditional finance world and the decentralized finance markets. We're doing that through our digital assets products, IBIT, Ether, BUIDL. They all invest in digital native products and are the largest in their categories. They're driving meaningful growth in the traditional capital markets and bridging digital and traditional finance. Second, we want to be the stablecoin reserve manager of choice in the industry. We already manage $60 billion of reserves for Circle, representing about a quarter of the $300 billion stablecoin market. We see lots of growth ahead in stablecoin, and we want to be the reserve manager of choice. The third, and I think the most exciting for us, is tokenizing long-term investment products like Treasury funds, iShares ETFs, and even private markets in the long term." He explains, "To that end, two actions we've taken: We've recently filed two registration statements with the SEC for tokenized money market funds. One is a tokenized share class on Ethereum of an existing fund, and the other is a more digitally native strategy with additional features like daily dividend reinvestment and the like. We expect it to be accessible through multiple chains and to operate in an ecosystem where third parties support stablecoin-enabled subscription and redemptions so that the funding mechanism can happen all on-chain in the digital wallet. As stablecoins and digital wallets grow, clients will need high-quality reserve and liquidity products that can operate natively in that digital ecosystem. These filings that we've made recently are about bringing BlackRock's core cash management capabilities to where digital assets clients are already operating. They reinforce our broader ambition to help connect traditional capital markets and tokenized assets." Small comments, "The thing I'd observe is that there's 5 billion digital wallets in the world. When we talk about tokenized assets, tokenized assets are the spear tip into an entirely new distribution channel. Accessing an entire new class of investor, it's a pure organic growth opportunity for BlackRock. We have a whole scaled ecosystem of products that could, over time, be tokenized. When I think about $2 trillion-plus of crypto and digital wallets, when I think about another $300 billion of stablecoins all growing, these are all potential new investors with iShares. They're all potential new users of model portfolios, SMAs, and managed accounts in tokenized format. We want to build a digital wallet native asset manager. We're working with market participants, regulators in a way to do that creates growth and resiliency and brings more investors into the markets and more organic growth at BlackRock."

State Street Investment Management (SSIM) recently posted a "Monthly Cash Review" titled, "Patience pays again." They write, "June was supposed to be a straightforward month for cash investors. The Federal Reserve was expected to sit still, money markets were behaving themselves, and summer was approaching. Naturally, markets looked at these perfectly reasonable expectations and decided to do something entirely different." The brief continues, "The month's main event was the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, exactly as everyone expected. In fact, expectations were so unanimous that a surprise would probably have caused several trading desks to collectively throw their spreadsheets out the window. Instead, Chair Warsh chose a different form of entertainment. He dramatically shortened the Fed statement, reduced forward guidance, announced a series of task forces reviewing everything from communication strategy to the balance sheet, and effectively told markets, 'You'll just have to watch the data and figure it out yourselves.'" SSIM says, "Fortunately, cash investors had little reason to complain. Treasury bill yields moved to some of the most attractive levels seen in months. Three-month bills traded above 3.70% while six-month bills pushed above 3.90%. Investors responded by purchasing bills while simultaneously worrying that rates could move even higher. Credit markets were similar; opportunities were there but care was warranted. Markets can reprice fast and leave you with renewed risk. This is a time-honored tradition in the cash markets: finding an attractive yield and immediately becoming concerned that you're not getting enough of it." The piece adds, "Money market funds also enjoyed another exceptional month. Assets climbed to a record near $7.9 trillion as investors continued parking cash in what has become one of the most popular trades on Wall Street: getting paid to be patient. Institutional investors alone added roughly $100 billion in a single week. After years of earning close to nothing on cash, investors remain surprisingly enthusiastic about earning something.... As June closes, the outlook for cash investors remains remarkably attractive. Yields are compelling, liquidity is plentiful, and funding markets remain stable. The future path of monetary policy may be less certain than it was a month ago, but money market investors are currently being paid handsomely to wait for the answer. In a world filled with geopolitical drama, policy uncertainty, and endless forecasting mistakes, earning nearly 4% while remaining liquid may be the closest thing markets offer to a free lunch. And unlike most free lunches, this one actually pays you."

Money fund yields (7-day, annualized, simple, net) were down 2 bps at 3.45% on average during the week ended Friday, July 10 (as measured by our Crane 100 Money Fund Index), after increasing 1 bp the week prior. Fund yields hadn't been below 3.5% since November 2022, and they are down from a recent high of 5.20% in November 2023. They should remain flat in coming days (and weeks) since the Fed left short-term rates unchanged four weeks prior. Yields were 3.44% on 5/31/26, 3.47% on 3/31, 3.58% on 12/31/25, 3.94% on 9/30/25, 4.13% on 6/30/25, 4.14% on 3/31/25 and 4.28% on average on 12/31/24. MMFs averaged 5.20% on 12/31/23. The broader Crane Money Fund Average, which includes all taxable funds tracked by Crane Data (currently 723), shows a 7-day yield of 3.36%, down 1 bp in the week through Friday. Prime Inst money fund yields were down 1 bp at 3.58% in the latest week. Government Inst MFs were down 2 bps at 3.44%. Treasury Inst MFs were down 1 bp at 3.43%. Treasury Retail MFs currently yield 3.20%, Government Retail MFs yield 3.17% and Prime Retail MFs yield 3.36%, Tax-exempt MF 7-day yields were down 38 bps to 1.55%. Money market mutual fund assets hit an all-time record high of $8.404 trillion on July 6. The previous record of $8.385 trillion was seen a week prior (7/1), according to our Money Fund Intelligence Daily. Assets have increased $62.2 billion in the week through Friday, and they've increased by $26.8 billion in July month-to-date (through 7/10). MMF assets increased by $58.6 billion in June, $208.6 billion in May, decreased by $108.8 billion in April, $49.3 billion in March, increased by $99.5 billion in February, $32.9 billion in January, $126.3 billion in December, $132.8 billion in November, $142.1 billion in October, $105.2 billion in September and $132.0 billion in August. They rose by $63.7 billion last July. Weighted average maturities were at 38 days for the Crane MFA and 40 days the Crane 100 Money Fund Index. According to Monday's Money Fund Intelligence Daily, with data as of Friday (7/10), just 173 money funds (out of 834 total) yield under 3.0% with $232.4 billion in assets, or 2.8%, while the vast majority (661) of funds yield between 3.00% and 3.99% ($8.145 trillion, or 97.2%). No funds yield over 4.0%. Our Brokerage Sweep Intelligence Index, an average of FDIC-insured cash options from major brokerages, was unchanged at 0.29%, after falling 1 bp seven weeks prior. The latest Brokerage Sweep Intelligence, with data as of July 10, shows no changes over the past week. Four of the 10 major brokerages tracked by our BSI offer rates of 0.01% for balances of $100K (and lower tiers). These include: E*Trade, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Schwab.

The latest "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee" state, "Regarding monetary policy expectations, the manager observed that market participants and respondents to the Open Market Desk Survey of Market Expectations (Desk survey) generally expected no change in the target range of the federal funds rate at the June FOMC meeting. Market- and survey-based measures of expected policy rates moved higher over the intermeeting period. In the Desk survey, the median of the modal paths of the federal funds rate implied no changes in the target range through the beginning of 2027 and one rate cut in the second quarter of next year. Market pricing suggested that one rate hike was priced for mid-2027, but the manager noted that these measures were likely boosted, in part, by term premiums." They also tell us, "The manager observed that money market conditions were generally stable, although conditions softened notably early in the intermeeting period before they partially rebounded. In particular, repurchase agreement (repo) rates dropped to 15 basis points below the interest rate on reserve balances in mid-May. Consistent with that drop, the effective federal funds rate declined 2 basis points, the first such change since November. There was modest take-up of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations on days when repo rates were especially low, confirming that those operations were effective in firming the floor under money market rates. Regarding the decline in repo rates early in the period, the manager noted several likely driving factors: Reserves increased following the seasonal low around the April tax date as the Treasury General Account dropped, reserve management purchases added reserves and reduced the bill supply available to the public, U.S. global systemically important banks likely increased intermediation capacity in response to regulatory changes earlier in the year, the demand for repo financing on the part of levered investors declined, and seasonal increases in cash investments of government-sponsored enterprises coincided with the lowest rates seen over the intermeeting period. The manager noted that, these developments notwithstanding, the level of reserves in the system appeared to remain within a range consistent with an ample supply." The Minutes say, "Over the intermeeting period, the market-implied expected path of the federal funds rate and nominal Treasury yields moved higher as stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced expectations that economic activity would remain resilient. The market-implied path of the policy rate over the latter half of this year increased during the intermeeting period, and related measures of uncertainty about the path of policy rose, partly reflecting a higher term premium. The rise in nominal Treasury yields, most notable at shorter maturities, reflected higher real rates. Short-term market-based measures of inflation compensation declined significantly but stayed at a slightly elevated level. Market-based measures of longer-term inflation compensation and survey-based measures of inflation expectations remained well anchored." They add, "Conditions in U.S. short-term funding markets remained stable. Aggregate bank reserves moved up following the previous period's tax receipt–driven decline. Money market rates ended the period slightly lower, on net, amid continued low bill supply. In support of the Committee's dual-mandate goals, all members agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent and to reaffirm the FOMC's policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Members also agreed that the statement would not repeat the language that had suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee's future interest rate decisions. Members noted that there had been little change in the unemployment rate and solid growth in economic activity, but that inflation remained elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal. Against this backdrop, members concurred that the post-meeting statement would convey the Committee's commitment to achieving its dual-mandate goals and emphasize that the Committee will deliver price stability."

The Investment Company Institute's latest weekly "Money Market Fund Assets" report shows money fund assets increasing $5.2 billion to a record $7.953 trillion, after jumping $47.7 billion the previous week. MMF assets are up by $881 billion, or 12.5%, over the past 52 weeks (through 7/8/26), with Institutional MMFs up $700 billion, or 16.8% and Retail MMFs up $180 billion, or 6.2%. Year-to-date in 2026, MMF assets are up by $220 billion, or 2.8%, with Institutional MMFs up $206 billion, or 4.4% and Retail MMFs up $14 billion, or 0.5%. ICI's weekly release says, "Total money market fund assets increased by $5.23 billion to $7.95 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, July 8, the Investment Company Institute reported.... Among taxable money market funds, government funds increased by $7.76 billion and prime funds increased by $112 million. Tax-exempt money market funds decreased by $2.64 billion.” ICI's stats show Institutional MMFs increasing $0.8 billion and Retail MMFs increasing $4.4 billion in the latest week. Total Government MMF assets, including Treasury funds, were $6.564 trillion (82.5% of all money funds), while Total Prime MMFs were $1.241 trillion (15.6%). Tax Exempt MMFs totaled $148.2 billion (1.9%). It explains, "Assets of retail money market funds increased by $4.41 billion to $3.09 trillion. Among retail funds, government money market fund assets increased by $3.13 billion to $1.97 trillion, prime money market fund assets increased by $2.70 billion to $989.04 billion, and tax-exempt fund assets decreased by $1.42 billion to $135.46 billion." Retail assets account for 38.9% of the total, and Government Retail assets make up 63.6% of all Retail MMFs. They add, "Assets of institutional money market funds increased by $827 million to $4.86 trillion. Among institutional funds, government money market fund assets increased by $4.63 billion to $4.60 trillion, prime money market fund assets decreased by $2.59 billion to $252.27 billion, and tax-exempt fund assets decreased by $1.22 billion to $12.77 billion." Institutional assets accounted for 61.1% of all MMF assets, with Government Institutional assets making up 94.5% of all institutional MMF totals. According to Crane Data's separate Money Fund Intelligence Daily series, money fund assets have increased by $39.3 billion to $8.389 trillion month-to-date in July (as of 7/8), assets reached an all-time high of $8.404 trillion on July 6. Assets increased $58.6 billion in June, $208.6 billion in May, decreased by $108.8 billion in April, $49.3 billion in March, increased $99.5 billion in February, $32.9 billion in January, $126.3 billion in December, $132.8 billion in November, $142.1 billion in October, $105.2 billion in September and $132.0 billion in August. They rose $63.7 billion last July. Note that `ICI's asset totals don't include a number of funds tracked by the SEC and Crane Data, so they're almost $400 billion lower than Crane's asset series.

BNY's John Velis and David Tam write on "Increasing T-Bill Issuance and Money Markets" in their latest "Short Thoughts." They tell us, "Increased T-bill supply for coming months has been identified as a driver for higher SOFR rates going forward, but we think there's a mitigating factor if the market continues to price out the most hawkish of expectations for the FOMC for the rest of 2026.... [T]he 3m term SOFR spread of the 3m T-bill rate has nearly halved since the post-June FOMC pop in hawkish pricing. We think that moderation in the labor data and short-term relief in consumer prices can keep these spreads from widening much further. Net bill issuance between July and September has averaged nearly $500bn over the past three years, while issuance in the April to June period has been negative by about $90bn.... [I]t's likely that Treasury's borrowing needs will require additional boosts to bill auctions over the next several months." The piece asks, "Will this push SOFR rates even higher, as many have argued? As mentioned above, we think that Fed expectations could soften.... The real question over the next few months, as expected T-bill issuance increases, is whether or not it can be comfortably absorbed by the market. There has been some reluctance by money market mutual funds (MMFs) to move out the curve and increase weighted average maturity, given still-present expectations of a rate hike, and this might have impacted demand for recent auctions. BNY adds, "However, with MMFs continuing to post record AUMs and cash preferences, we don't think the expected ramp up in supply will have too much trouble finding buys, especially if Fed rate expectations come in lower – a data driven process we'll be watching.... [R]eal money demand for T-bills is nearly inelastic, a robust result that held before, during and after the pandemic. We would be wary that any spread widening will be long-lived and expect the market to absorb increased supply."

Crane Data published its latest Weekly Money Fund Portfolio Holdings statistics Tuesday, which track a shifting subset of our monthly Portfolio Holdings collection. The most recent cut (with data as of July 3) includes Holdings information from 48 money funds (down 27 from a week ago), or $3.629 trillion (down from $4.784 trillion) of the $8.315 trillion in total money fund assets (or 43.6%) tracked by Crane Data. (Note: Our Weekly MFPH are e-mail only and aren't available on the website. See our latest Monthly Money Fund Portfolio Holdings here and our June 10 News, "June MF Portfolio Holdings: Assets Jump; Treasuries Surge, Repo Up.") Our latest Weekly MFPH Composition summary shows Government assets dominating the holdings list with Treasuries totaling $1.654 trillion (down from $2.079 trillion a week ago), or 45.6%; Repurchase Agreements (Repo) totaling $1.251 trillion (down from $1.759 trillion a week ago), or 34.5%, and Government Agency securities totaling $383.1 billion (down from $519.3 billion a week ago), or 10.6%. Commercial Paper (CP) totaled $131.2 billion (down from $179.8 billion a week ago), or 3.6%. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) totaled $82.2 billion (down from $99.7 billion a week ago), or 2.3%. The Other category accounted for $65.5 billion or 1.8%, while VRDNs accounted for $62.8 billion or 1.7%. The Ten Largest Issuers in our Weekly Holdings product include: the US Treasury with $1.654 trillion, Fixed Income Clearing Corp with $432.7B, the Federal Home Loan Bank with $255.7B, JP Morgan with $132.1B, Citi with $100.0B, Wells Fargo with $91.4B, RBC with $79.5B, BNP Paribas with $72.2B, Federal Farm Credit Bank with $66.8B and Bank of America with $41.7B. The Ten Largest Funds tracked in our latest Weekly include: JPMorgan 100% US Trs MM ($328.5B), JPMorgan US Govt MM ($328.0B), Goldman Sachs FS Govt ($281.3B), Fidelity Inv MM: Govt Port ($280.8B), Morgan Stanley Inst Liq Govt ($209.9B), BlackRock Lq FedFund ($190.1B), BlackRock Lq Treas Tr ($185.5B), Fidelity Inv MM: MM Port ($160.4B), Dreyfus Govt Cash Mgmt ($155.7B) and Allspring Govt MM ($134.3B). (Let us know if you'd like to see our latest domestic U.S. and/or "offshore" Weekly Portfolio Holdings collection and summary.)

Money fund yields (7-day, annualized, simple, net) were up 1 bp at 3.47% on average during the week ended Thursday, July 2 (as measured by our Crane 100 Money Fund Index), after going unchanged the week prior. Fund yields hadn't been below 3.5% since November 2022, and they are down from a recent high of 5.20% in November 2023. They should remain flat in coming days (and weeks) since the Fed left short-term rates unchanged three weeks prior. Yields were 3.44% on 5/31/26, 3.47% on 3/31, 3.58% on 12/31/25, 3.94% on 9/30/25, 4.13% on 6/30/25, 4.14% on 3/31/25 and 4.28% on average on 12/31/24. MMFs averaged 5.20% on 12/31/23. The broader Crane Money Fund Average, which includes all taxable funds tracked by Crane Data (currently 716), shows a 7-day yield of 3.37%, up 1 bp in the week through Thursday. Prime Inst money fund yields were unchanged at 3.59% in the latest week. Government Inst MFs were up 1 bp at 3.46%. Treasury Inst MFs were up 1 bp at 3.44%. Treasury Retail MFs currently yield 3.21%, Government Retail MFs yield 3.19% and Prime Retail MFs yield 3.38%, Tax-exempt MF 7-day yields were down 37 bps to 1.93%. Money market mutual fund assets hit an all-time record high of $8.385 trillion on July 1. The previous record of $8.370 trillion was seen two weeks prior (6/16), according to our Money Fund Intelligence Daily. Assets have decreased $46.2 billion in the week through Thursday, and they've decreased by $35.4 billion in July month-to-date (through 7/2). MMF assets increased by $58.6 billion in June, $208.6 billion in May, decreased by $108.8 billion in April, $49.3 billion in March, increased by $99.5 billion in February, $32.9 billion in January, $126.3 billion in December, $132.8 billion in November, $142.1 billion in October, $105.2 billion in September and $132.0 billion in August. They rose by $63.7 billion last July. Weighted average maturities were at 39 days for the Crane MFA and 42 days the Crane 100 Money Fund Index. According to Monday's Money Fund Intelligence Daily, with data as of Thursday (7/2), just 168 money funds (out of 827 total) yield under 3.0% with $223.6 billion in assets, or 2.7%, while the vast majority (659) of funds yield between 3.00% and 3.99% ($8.091 trillion, or 97.3%). No funds yield over 4.0%. Our Brokerage Sweep Intelligence Index, an average of FDIC-insured cash options from major brokerages, was unchanged at 0.29%, after falling 1 bp six weeks prior. The latest Brokerage Sweep Intelligence, with data as of July 2, shows no changes over the past week. Four of the 10 major brokerages tracked by our BSI offer rates of 0.01% for balances of $100K (and lower tiers). These include: E*Trade, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Schwab.

The Investment Company Institute's latest weekly "Money Market Fund Assets" report shows money fund assets jumping $47.7 billion to a record $7.948 trillion, after falling $18.9 billion the previous week. MMF assets are up by $870 billion, or 12.3%, over the past 52 weeks (through 7/1/26), with Institutional MMFs up $691 billion, or 16.6% and Retail MMFs up $179 billion, or 6.1%. Year-to-date in 2026, MMF assets are up by $215 billion, or 2.8%, with Institutional MMFs up $205 billion, or 4.4% and Retail MMFs up $10 billion, or 0.3%. ICI's weekly release says, "Total money market fund assets increased by $47.71 billion to $7.95 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, July 1, the Investment Company Institute reported.... Among taxable money market funds, government funds increased by $34.11 billion and prime funds increased by $11.36 billion. Tax-exempt money market funds increased by $2.24 billion.” ICI's stats show Institutional MMFs increasing $44.1 billion and Retail MMFs increasing $3.6 billion in the latest week. Total Government MMF assets, including Treasury funds, were $6.556 trillion (82.5% of all money funds), while Total Prime MMFs were $1.241 trillion (15.6%). Tax Exempt MMFs totaled $150.9 billion (1.9%). It explains, "Assets of retail money market funds increased by $3.60 billion to $3.09 trillion. Among retail funds, government money market fund assets increased by $1.12 billion to $1.96 trillion, prime money market fund assets increased by $1.25 billion to $986.34 billion, and tax-exempt fund assets increased by $1.23 billion to $136.88 billion." Retail assets account for 38.8% of the total, and Government Retail assets make up 63.6% of all Retail MMFs. They add, "Assets of institutional money market funds increased by $44.11 billion to $4.86 trillion. Among institutional funds, government money market fund assets increased by $32.99 billion to $4.59 trillion, prime money market fund assets increased by $10.11 billion to $254.86 billion, and tax-exempt fund assets increased by $1.01 billion to $13.99 billion." Institutional assets accounted for 61.2% of all MMF assets, with Government Institutional assets making up 94.5% of all institutional MMF totals. According to Crane Data's separate Money Fund Intelligence Daily series, money fund assets have increased by $35.0 billion to a record high $8.385 trillion month-to-date in July (as of 7/1). Assets increased $58.6 billion in June, $208.6 billion in May, decreased by $108.8 billion in April, $49.3 billion in March, increased $99.5 billion in February, $32.9 billion in January, $126.3 billion in December, $132.8 billion in November, $142.1 billion in October, $105.2 billion in September and $132.0 billion in August. They rose $63.7 billion last July. Note that `ICI's asset totals don't include a number of funds tracked by the SEC and Crane Data, so they're almost $400 billion lower than Crane's asset series.

Marty Margolis's latest Public Funds Investment Institute posting is titled, "Halftime: What's in Store for the Balance of 2026?" It explains, "Last week's Crane Money Fund Symposium brought together portfolio managers who invest assets in the $8 trillion money market fund industry along with those who invest portfolios for the major banks. It's a small number of people whose views on the economy and investment markets are incredibly important in setting the course for short-term interest rates. The symposium came on the heels of the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh which seemed to mark the beginning of a new direction for monetary policy. The timing and the audience provided an opportunity to consider the path of the short-term fixed income market for the balance of 2026." It summarizes, "With that in mind here are key themes that came out of the meeting: The Fed Will Raise Rates. The consensus of portfolio managers seemed to be for one or two 25 basis point increases in the Federal Reserve's target rate (currently 3.50%-3.75%) over the balance of 2026. Bank and broker economists at the symposium, many of whom are regularly on Bloomberg, CNBC and on investor roadshows had a wider dispersion of views, from forecasts of unchanged rates to those who foresee three increases. Portfolio managers leaned toward the mild side. One or two increases would be a big change from the outlook early in 2026, when federal funds futures contracts predicted an overnight rate of 3% or less by year-end, but persistent inflation and a slow but positive expansion of economic activity have led to the adjustment." The piece also says, "A Surge in Treasury Bill Supply Will Dominate the Second Half of 2026," stating, "Treasury is expected to issue $800 billion(!) of bills over the next six months to fund the federal deficit. It will increase outstanding bill supply by about 12%. This may seem like a striking figure, but it's in line with issuance last year. If you are a buyer/investor more supply is a positive as it should put modest upward pressure on yields." Margolis updste adds, "Market participants expect that money funds will continue to absorb much of the supply with their assets extending the pace of recent growth. Bill issuance over the past several years has been matched by growth in money fund assets." Finally, the article tells us, "The Prospect of More Bills Could Put Modest Upward Pressure on Money Market Yields." It says, "Bank deposit rates and commercial paper rates could rise to add spread to comparable bill rates. Financial institutions will want to assure funding in the face of the bill onslaught and also position for the end of the year when funding normally gets more challenging. Some evidence of spread widening already has shown up in levels posted by banks for maturities of six months or more, and this spread widening could continue in coming weeks.... Market participants are buzzing about stable coins, tokenized money fund shares and money fund ETFs but these innovations remain on the fringe. Either the technologies are still in formation, or the business case is lacking, and they are not seen as impacting the markets, at least in the short run."

A posting on Yahoo Finance, "Invesco Targets Stablecoin Reserves With New Tokenized Money Market Fund," explains, "Invesco ($IVZ) is moving deeper into the stablecoin reserve market with a new tokenized money market fund aimed at issuers looking for compliant, yield-bearing cash management. The $2.45 trillion asset manager filed an amended registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 24 to add the Invesco Stablecoin Reserves Onchain Fund to its Short-Term Investments Trust. The fund does not yet have a ticker and is expected to become effective about 60 days after the filing, unless regulators intervene." The piece says, "Superstate's role gives the product its onchain layer. The filing describes a blockchain-integrated recordkeeping system that combines off-chain book-entry records with digital representations of fund shares on designated public blockchains. Wallets must be registered and verified, keeping the product closer to permissioned institutional infrastructure than open crypto trading." The story adds, "The filing adds Invesco to a growing group of Wall Street firms positioning money market funds as stablecoin reserve infrastructure. The category has become more attractive as stablecoin legislation gives issuers a clearer map for eligible reserves, while tokenized fund platforms try to make those assets usable inside faster settlement and collateral workflows. Invesco already had a link to the sector after taking over day-to-day portfolio management of Superstate's USTB tokenized Treasury fund earlier this year." See the SEC filing for Invesco Stablecoin Reserves Onchain Fund here. For more on Stablecoin Reserve funds, see these Crane Data News stories: "Fidelity Reserves Digital Fund Goes Live" (6/23/26), "State Street Stablecoin Reserves Goes Live" (6/17/26), "Federated MMR Digital Treasury Fund" (6/10/26), "BNY Files for Dreyfus On-​Chain Liquidity Fund for Stablecoin Reserves" (5/22/26), "Fidelity Files for Reserves Digital Fund, 5th Stablecoin Reserve MMF" (3/23/26), "Dec. MFI: MMFs Hit $8.0T, Top 10; JPM '26 Outlook; Stablecoin Reserves" (12/5/25), "State Street Files for Stablecoin Reserves MMF; BNY's Stephanie Pierce" (11/19/25), "BNY Stablecoin Reserves Goes Live; ICI: Assets Eke Out Record $7.5T" (11/14/25),"BNY's Vince on Q3 Call: Money Market Evolution, Dreyfus, Stablecoins" (10/22/25), "BlackRock Breaks $1 Trillion in Money Funds; Offers Stablecoin Reserve" (10/17/25), "Sept. MFI: Assets Break $7.6T; Stablecoin Reserves; JPM on Offshore MFs" (9/8/25), "BNY Dreyfus to Launch Stablecoin Reserves Fund; Joins Goldman, Circle" (8/20) and "Goldman Files to Launch Stablecoin Reserves Fund; Circle Q2 Earnings" (8/13/25).

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