Fitch on Q4'20 Global MMF Flows
Fitch Ratings' published, "Global Money Market Fund Flows Dashboard: 4Q20," which tells us, "Fitch Ratings estimates that global money market fund (MMF) assets under management (AUM) increased by about USD220 billion (3%) in 4Q20 to a total of USD7.3 trillion, nearly 20% more than at the start of 2020. The pickup was primarily driven by inflows in Chinese and European MMFs, while total assets for US onshore MMFs decreased slightly." The update continues, "US MMF AUM decreased by about USD70 billion (2%) to USD4.3 trillion at end-4Q20. AUM fell across prime and tax-free funds, while government funds' AUM remained broadly stable in 4Q20. US MMF assets were up overall at end-2020, but below the peak of USD4.7 trillion at end-May 2020. Inflows to government MMFs throughout 2020 more than offset the net outflows from prime (31%) and tax-free (24%) MMFs. Government, prime and tax-free MMFs represented 85%, 13% and 2% of US MMFs, respectively, at end-2020." Fitch explains, "European MMFs' AUM increased in 4Q20 by EUR102 billion (7%) to EUR1.5 trillion by end 2020. We estimate that variable net asset value (VNAV) MMFs in Europe, most of which are euro-denominated, were the main contributor to the increase, with a 16% growth in AUM in 4Q20 when measured in euros (EUR97 billion). French MMFs, which are primarily VNAV, increased by 7% to EUR0.4 trillion in 4Q20. The increase in 4Q20 led total AUM in European MMFs to a new peak at end-2020, marginally higher the prior peak at end-July 2020 when measured in euros. Euro-, sterling- and US dollar-denominated MMFs represented around 95% of total MMF assets in Europe at end-2020." They write, "Chinese MMFs had inflows in 4Q20 of CNY0.8 trillion (10%), with total assets at CNY8.1 trillion at end-2020. AUM remained below the 2020 peak of CNY8.6 trillion at end-April 2020 but above the end-2019 level of CNY7.1 trillion. The Chinese mutual fund industry had widespread inflows (CNY1.4 trillion) in 4Q20, which benefitted almost all asset classes amid money supply expansion and increased household saving." Lastly, they explain, "MMFs could undergo renewed asset flow volatility in 2021 as central banks' temporary facilities reduce. There is potential for further market disruption depending on vaccine rollout and efficacy. A resurgence of investor flight-to-quality, challenging non-government MMFs more than government MMFs, or sustained low policy rates leading to negative-yielding funds could pressure flows." Fitch also published "U.S. Money Market Funds: February 2021," where they comment, "Total taxable money market fund (MMF) assets increased by $25 billion from Jan. 11, 2020 to Feb. 11, 2021, according to iMoneyNet data. Prime MMFs lost $7 billion in assets during this period, offset by a $32 billion increase in government MMF assets.... Total MMF assets have declined to $4.15 trillion since peaking at $4.59 trillion on May 28, 2020, partially driven by the low rate environment." The brief concludes, "MMFs increased their daily and weekly liquid assets when they experienced extreme market volatility in March 2020 and maintained those elevated levels since. Average daily and weekly liquid assets increased from 31.6% and 44.3%, on Feb. 28, 2020, to 37.1% and 53% on Jan. 29, 2021, according to Crane Data. This sustained increase is partially driven by the outflows prime institutional MMFs experienced in March that challenged fund managers’ ability to manage liquidity."
