Marty Margolis'​s latest Public Funds Investment Institute posting is titled, "Halftime: What'​s in Store for the Balance of 2026?" It explains, "Last week'​s Crane Money Fund Symposium brought together portfolio managers who invest assets in the $​8 trillion money market fund industry along with those who invest portfolios for the major banks. It'​s a small number of people whose views on the economy and investment markets are incredibly important in setting the course for short-​term interest rates. The symposium came on the heels of the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh which seemed to mark the beginning of a new direction for monetary policy. The timing and the audience provided an opportunity to consider the path of the short-​term fixed income market for the balance of 2026." It summarizes, "With that in mind here are key themes that came out of the meeting: The Fed Will Raise Rates. The consensus of portfolio managers seemed to be for one or two 25 basis point increases in the Federal Reserve'​s target rate (​currently 3.​50%-​3.​75%) over the balance of 2026. Bank and broker economists at the symposium, many of whom are regularly on Bloomberg, CNBC and on investor roadshows had a wider dispersion of views, from forecasts of unchanged rates to those who foresee three increases. Portfolio managers leaned toward the mild side. One or two increases would be a big change from the outlook early in 2026, when federal funds futures contracts predicted an overnight rate of 3% or less by year-​end, but persistent inflation and a slow but positive expansion of economic activity have led to the adjustment." The piece also says, "A Surge in Treasury Bill Supply Will Dominate the Second Half of 2026," stating, "Treasury is expected to issue $​800 billion(!) of bills over the next six months to fund the federal deficit. It will increase outstanding bill supply by about 12%. This may seem like a striking figure, but it'​s in line with issuance last year. If you are a buyer/​investor more supply is a positive as it should put modest upward pressure on yields." Margolis updste adds, "Market participants expect that money funds will continue to absorb much of the supply with their assets extending the pace of recent growth. Bill issuance over the past several years has been matched by growth in money fund assets." Finally, the article tells us, "The Prospect of More Bills Could Put Modest Upward Pressure on Money Market Yields." It says, "Bank deposit rates and commercial paper rates could rise to add spread to comparable bill rates. Financial institutions will want to assure funding in the face of the bill onslaught and also position for the end of the year when funding normally gets more challenging. Some evidence of spread widening already has shown up in levels posted by banks for maturities of six months or more, and this spread widening could continue in coming weeks.... Market participants are buzzing about stable coins, tokenized money fund shares and money fund ETFs but these innovations remain on the fringe. Either the technologies are still in formation, or the business case is lacking, and they are not seen as impacting the markets, at least in the short run."

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