Morningstar Hits Cash on the Sidelines
Morningstar recently published an article titled, "Is There Really a Historic Level of Cash on the Stock Market's Sidelines?" They state, "Heading into 2022, the federal-funds rate target was essentially zero. Money market funds, which invest in very short-term debt, had yields to match. Now, with the Fed's target rate in the range of 5.25%-5.50%, money market yields have been hovering around 5.00%. The Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022, but it wasn't until October 2022 that investors began pouring money into money market funds. Since then, more than $1.2 trillion has been shifted into these cash alternatives as yields have risen and stabilized. Not surprisingly, assets in the category have swelled to a nominal record of $6.1 trillion as of Feb. 29, 2024." The brief continues, "As $123 billion flowed into money markets in January, that fueled the argument. But flows slowed markedly in February, with just $33 billion in net new money. At this pace, 2024 money fund inflows will approach $1 trillion but fall short of 2023's record." It adds, "The reality is that as a proportion of risky assets, money markets are normal. According to Morningstar Direct, assets in money funds as a percentage of long-term assets peaked at 63% at the height of the global financial crisis in 2008, and they have averaged about 20% since 2011. At 23% of long-term assets at the end of January, US money market levels are not extraordinary, even after 2023's cascade of inflows."
